Squeeze Insights Lab

Research

What we tested on live perpetual-futures data, what survived honest validation, and — mostly — what didn't. Every figure comes with what it was measured against and how many independent days stand behind it.

·14 min read

The base-rate mirage: how a 60% hit rate can be worth nothing

A 60% hit rate sounds like skill. When the market moved that way anyway, it is arithmetic — and a bound on our own data says the sign was never measurable.

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